The U.S. House of Representatives was without a permanent speaker since Oct. 3rd. After three weeks of legislative paralysis, Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) won the majority votes Oct. 25 in a U.S. House that will now have a far-right conservative leader.
After former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was ousted, Congress had been in a legislative crisis with no leader to pass legislation, such as the pressing funding bill in which the Biden Administration requested $105 billion for aid to Ukraine, Israel, and the southern border.
“If there is not a funding bill before Nov. 17, there will be a government shutdown,” said Hafthor Erlingsson, UTRGV political science lecturer.
With an approaching deadline for a funding bill to be passed mid-November, there is still a risk of shutdown in the next few weeks. Johnson and other Republicans already came out saying they do not support any further aid to Ukraine.
“Speaker Johnson already said that he wants to split up the bill,” Erlingsson said. “So, Israel will get the aid, but it is more questionable with Ukraine. Even though McCarthy might [have been] personally opposed to continuing funding the Ukrainian effort, as speaker, he might have had to realize there is a need for a bipartisan majority for that.”
A government shutdown will yet again paralyze Congress and the nation. According to Erlingsson, if there is a shutdown, a lot of the services the government provides will not be available to the public.
However, for politicians, a shutdown is used as a medium to push for their own agenda and get certain legislation passed, the political science lecturer said.
“There is always a chance of a shutdown with the Republicans being the majority,” said Martin Resendiz, political science senior. “That is what history shows, so there is a good chance we will have a shutdown for a few days. I [would] be surprised if we avoid it.”
Erlingsson and Resendiz said Johnson does not have much leadership experience. He is not well known, which is allegedly an advantage for his term.
He might benefit from his lack of precedence and accountability to the public. All he can do is promise without the baggage other representatives with long history in the House have, Erlingsson and Resendiz said.
The new speaker has been portrayed in the media as a far-rightist. In fact, according to Resendiz, his partisanship might be the reason why he was able to rally all Republicans to vote for him, centrists and far-rightists.
“Johnson’s first test is going to be deciding if setting the agenda will be what he wants passed or what the Republicans want passed,” Resendiz said.
According to Resendiz, the speaker is supposed to have a certain amount of influence and be a big negotiator for putting forth legislation. The position has the power to be an agenda setter, but it really depends on what comes out of the term.
Erlingsson said he would expect Johnson to act differently as a speaker than he did as a member. It is different from just being one out of 435 votes.
“It is possible he will put forward conservative bills, but I would think it is unlikely,” he said. “Will that help the Republican Party do well in the 2024 elections? Probably not.”
According to Erlingsson and Resendiz, in a divided government, bipartisanship is needed to get anything done. Speaker Johnson will have to work within that system to fix a paralyzed Congress.
Finch Cantu