2023 Oscar Predictions

It’s that time of year again! The Oscars are this weekend and there is one film on everyone’s mind, everywhere, all at once. But in a lackluster year overall, we got stellar performances, boundary pushing effects, and dazzling set pieces. Indies continue to dominate (everything A24) while the old guard (Spielberg and Tom Cruise) remind us why they remain at the top decade after decade. While anything can happen at the ceremony (just ask Chris Rock) most awards are going to be up between one or two key nominations. So here are picks for what should, will, and could win at the 2023 Academy Awards.

Cinematography

Nominees 

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
• Elvis
•  Empire of Light
• Tár

Who Should Win: Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Darius Khondji’s brilliant ability to blend dreamscapes with diegetic reality is a masterclass in cinematography. However, the surrealist quality of the film goes against everything the Academy believes in and will likely not result in its deserved recognition.

Who Will Win: Elvis

While it’s unlikely Baz Luhrmann’s gimmicky biopic will sweep the awards, this is one category where (along with Best Actor) the Academy will likely take notice. While little of the actual film works on a high level, this is one area where it could win an award.

Who Could Win: Empire of Light

It took decades, but the Academy finally realized the magic in Roger Deakins’ craft. Winning his first award for 2017’s Blade Runner 2049, then again with 2020’s 1917, after a staggering 13 previous nominations. While the film didn’t set the world on fire, his camera sure has.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees

• Brenden Gleeson (Banshees of Inisherin)
• Bryan Tyree Henry (Causeway)
• Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
•  Barry Keoghan (Banshees of Inisherin)
• Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Who Should Win: Barry Keoghan

The young actor has been crushing it since 2017’s dual breakthrough of The Killing of a Sacred Deer and Dunkirk, and now he finally has his first Oscar nom, but will his stellar performance of the dim-witted and abused islander be enough? It should be.

Who Will Win: Judd Hirsch

With a whopping 92 acting credits to his name, it’s no wonder this one is being recognized. Hirsch steals the show in his limited screen time and leaves the audience wanting more. Academy voters love when a senior actor steals the show, and he did it well.

Who Could Win: Ke Huy Quan

After a 30-year absence from the screen, Quan absolutely destroyed his dual performance as a mirror image father broken from both defending and trying to defeat his deflated daughter. Quan hits every nuance with precision and passion. If he takes the statue, it won’t be a disappointment.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees

• Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
• Hong Chau (The Whale)
• Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
• Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)                             
• Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Who Should Win: Stephanie Hsu

While Jamie Lee represents the old guard in Daniels’ film about the destruction of the universe, Hsu is the new. Her performance as the outcast daughter of aging immigrants shows scorn and sorrow. Like all main actors in the film, she plays multiple versions of the character, each empowering and heartbreaking.

Who Will Win: Angela Bassett

Did Bassett need the Marvel treatment to breathe new life into her illustrious career, which peaked in ‘90s? Well, maybe. But her performance as the broken mother of a fallen hero hits all the right marks. Couple that with the Academy’s love for a redemption story and it’s written all over the red carpet.

Who Could Win: Kerry Condon

Condon went the distance with veteran actors Gleeson and Farrell in this black-as-night comedy about finding your way in the changing world, the kicker is her character is the only one who does. Her performance is torn as she wants the best for her dim-witted brother, but she understands the need for distance to make the most of our little time. Her arch isn’t explained, it’s written across her face.

Best Leading Actor

Nominees

• Austin Butler (Elvis)
• Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
• Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
• Bill Nighy (Living)
• Brenden Fraser (The Whale)

Who Should Win: Brenden Fraser 

Everyone loves a comeback and this year none was more deserving or powerful this year as Fraser. Most would have botched this performance and played it for sympathy, but not Fraser. He plays it for dignity. No performance this year could come close to this powerhouse performance. Let’s just hope the Academy won’t stick up for the predators he called out in the Golden Globes and pass on his once in a lifetime accomplishment. 

Who Will Win: Austin Butler

Yes, everyone also loves a good bio-pic and Butler sure gives his all. The problem is with everything else about the movie. It won’t matter to those who already made up their minds. If Butler wins, we will know the Academy has officially given up.

Who Could Win: Paul Mescal/Colin Farrell

Lets face it, Best Lead actor is the most stacked category this year and all nominees deserve to be seen. Mescal transcends performance and makes fatherhood mistakes forgivable, while Farrell plays dim like no one since Tom Hanks’s Forrest Gump. But if anyone besides Fraser wins, it will be a travesty. 

Best Leading Actress

Nominees

• Cate Blanchett (Tár)
• Ana De Armas (Blonde)
• Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
• Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
• Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Who Should Win: Cate Blanchett

Having already won two trophies, there is no question as to Blanchett’s power on screen. Her dedication to nuance and vulnerability have shattered glass ceilings and placed her among the top tier in the limited company of only Meryl Streep.

Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett

Blanchett’s tour de force as Lydia Tár, the once top of the world EGOT (Emmy, Golden Globe, Oscar, Tony) winner and undaunted conductor whose world comes crashing down when the forces that kept her in place fall down around her. Only Michelle Yeoh came close to this grand slam of a performance and Blanchett will no doubt bring home the gold once again.

Who Could Win: Michelle Yeoh

Suppose anyone could come in between Blanchett and her near-inevitable win; it would be Yeoh. But the margin isn’t even close. Sure, Yeoh was beyond amazing, but Blanchett transcended the screen and brought a mirror to society as a whole. 

Best Director

Nominees

• THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN (Martin McDonagh)
• EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert)
• THE FABELMANS (Steven Spielberg)
• TÁR (Todd Field)
• TRIANGLE OF SADNESS (Ruben Östlund)

Who Should Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

Sure, we’d all love to see Ruben Östlund or Todd Field get deserved recognition for their powerful movies, but this year, there was only one film absolutely everyone agreed on. Daniels made us laugh until we cried and begged for our mommies, sending the universe spiraling out of control. Bringing legends like Yeoh and Curtis to their full potential onscreen were only minor elements in their potent film. The real power is in every camera set-up, every broken expression on an actor’s face, and every bizarre universe conceived. No directors this year came close.

Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg

While it isn’t his best (by far), voters love to shower the old guard with praise when they reflect on what brought them to where they are. Speilberg is the rare artist whose work is admired by both the culture and the critics. With nine nominations just for directing, and two wins, there is no doubt he deserves the recognition, but this year it should go to someone else. 

Who Could Win: Martin McDonagh

If anyone can challenge Spielberg and Daniels this year, it’s McDonagh. In his first Directing nomination, he proves he deserves to be among the best. But will his pitch-black satire be enough to wow voters? 

Best Picture

Nominees

• ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
• AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
• THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
• ELVIS
• EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
• THE FABELMANS
• TÁR
• TOP GUN: MAVERICK
• TRIANGLE OF SADNESS
• WOMEN TALKING

Who Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Sure, the Academy doesn’t always get it right, The Shape of Water or Crash (2005) anyone? But if they muck up this sure thing, there will be no forgiveness in coming years. No movie this year came this close to capturing what it means to be alive.

Who Will Win: The Fabelmans

It’ll be a cop-out if The Fabelmans take it, but sometimes that’s just what they do, remember when The King’s Speech beat The Social Network in 2010?! If modern times have taught the Academy anything, it’s that playing safe won’t cause backlash. Let’s just hope they aren’t spineless this year.

Who Could Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

Martin McDonagh’s masterclass in writing and directing for actors is the only total knockout that could stand a chance against EEAAO and Fabelmans. Its music, cinematography, and production design are all first-rate, as well as the masterful direction and acting. It’s the only film that wouldn’t be a disappointment to win against Daniels tour de force.